The legitimate truth is that poker feigns are straightforward with a modest quantity of math. In any case, in saying that, I additionally understand that numerous players are terrified of poker math. It can look overpowering right away, however with some essential information, it turns out to be extremely simple to do. What's more, with a simply smidgen of additional training, you can remember a couple of things and accurately gauge the worth of specific feign plays at the table. In this video I want to show you some straightforward poker math for feigning, so you can comprehend how frequently your adversary needs to crease given your feign size. We will try and go above and beyond and give you a straightforward numbers to retain so you can eye-ball things simpler progressively! Press play and how about we begin putting some numerical support behind your feigns Poker math can appear to be exceptionally mind boggling, however with some fundamental information and practice it can turn out to be extremely simple. Furthermore, even better, on the off chance that you utilize this math accurately, you can track down simple methods for working on your winrate and become a harder rival. In this guide I'll tell you the best way to sort out the breakeven level of specific plays and obviously, how that number will help you at the tables.
The Simple Bluff Formula
What exactly is a breakeven percentage? This is the mathematical way of saying “if X play works this amount it’s breakeven, or 0EV. If it works less then it is -EV and if it works more then it’s +EV.”
Once we know the breakeven % necessary to run a bluff, we can use our hand reading skills to estimate if the bluff will actually work often enough to make it profitable.
The good news, if you are a math nerd like me, is that the formula is incredibly simple:
Even if you aren’t a math nerd, that’s a pretty easy formula to remember. In poker, we are constantly focusing on risk and reward, even if you’ve never visualized it like this before. Every bet you make risks money, and you are making those bets in order to win the reward…or rather, the money in the pot. Let’s look at an example to make this more tangible:
A Simple Bluff Example
In this hand we raise from EP with 6♠ 6♥, the BB calls, and we see a HU flop of K♦ 9♠ 7♥. The BB checks and we bet for $4. Even though we have a pair in this hand, it’s doubtful to be ahead of the BB’s range if he calls or raises. So we can rightfully assume that our bet here is closer to a bluff than a pure value bet. It would be worth discussing the value of balancing our betting range in poker here if our opponent were a strong player, but let’s assume they are a less competent opponent for now.
If we pull out our fancy breakeven formula, we only need to fill in two numbers. The risk is our bet size of $4, since that is what we are risking in this spot. And the reward is the pot, or $6.5. So:
$4 / ($4 + $6.50) = 38%
This means if villain will fold 38% of the time, this bet is breakeven. If he folds less than 38% of the time, the bet is outright -EV. If he folds more than 38% of the time, this bet is outright +EV.
Outright Profitable Bluffing
We purposefully use the word “outright” since there are plenty of times in poker where a single bet may be outright +EV or -EV, but in the context of an entire play, it can swing the other way. For instance, a spot where a flop cbet is outright -EV because your opponent doesn’t fold enough given the breakeven %, but he’ll fold a ton on Turns and Rivers – thus making the overall play +EV.
Not sure how to use EV? Watch this quick Poker EV Video now
You may be wondering how you can estimate if villain will actually fold more than the breakeven %. I personally use the tool Flopzilla to work that out, and you can watch out full-length video on the software if you are interested. With enough off table practice with a tool like this you can more correctly visualize how common ranges hit or miss common flop textures.
Poker Math By Stake
One last thing that I want to say here is that you should memorize some of these breakeven percentages. Whether you are playing 1 cent/2 cent online or $10/$20 live, the breakeven percentage math never changes. If you are betting half pot the breakeven % will always be the same, whether you are betting 15 cents into 30 cents, or $300 into $600. So here are the most common breakeven %s that you should memorize:
1/2 Pot = 33% Breakeven
2/3 Pot = 40% Breakeven
Full-Pot = 50% Breakeven
Know these percentages like the back of your hand because these are common bet sizes we use postflop. If you decide to use a less standard size when bluffing, like 1/4th pot or an overbet, just pull out the formula and do a quick calculation.
It should also be noted that your own equity will influence things. If you have a big draw you don’t require as many folds compared to a pure bluff since your draw can improve and win sometimes. But the 66 on K97 example from above has very few outs, and thus we’ll treat it closer to pure bluff to simplify things.
Bluff Raising Math
We can also use this concept on other streets and for other actions. Say in this 66 example that villain calls our cbet. The turn is a 4♥ and he bets into us for $12. For giggles, let’s say we are considering a bluff raise up to $32. We can still use the same breakeven % to figure out how often we need villain to fold in order for this bluff raise to be profitable.
Meaning that if we can expect him to fold more than 55% of the time we should bluff…if not…we should likely fold unless we really think our measly pair of sixes is ahead enough of the time.
If the only thing you take from this lesson is the breakeven % formula, you’ve won. If you also take the breakeven %s to memorize, then you’ve crushed. Understanding the breakeven % will help you put mathematical backing to all of your bluffs. Of course, figuring out if villain will actually fold enough is another skill set altogether…but strengthening the math part of your game is never a bad thing.
Auto-Profit Betting
This OKBET Casino shows you how to do the key calculations and correctly eyeball if a bet would net you outright profits. I also break down the formulas, share some simple numbers to memorize, and go through various auto-profit examples form
Auto-profit bets are the cornerstone of finding easy bluffs in every session you play. Whether a bluff is auto-profitable or not depends on two key factors: the breakeven percentage and your opponent’s folding frequency.
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The Simple Poker Bluff Math in OKBET Casino
