When you have the breakeven % of a feign comprehended, you can go above and beyond and demonstrate the genuine EV of your feign. Things are straightforward when you have an unadulterated feign that gets no opportunity of winning (like 98 on AT4-2-K) - however generally we have at any rate a promising sign to improve and win the pot. FWIW, you can surely involve an idea and mini-computer for suggested chances while Confronting wagers with drawing hands. Be that as it may, while wagering or raising yourself, using a perplexing EV recipe is strong. Furthermore, can we just be real for a minute, there are not many things in poker that are more enjoyable than pushing. Furthermore, assuming you are thinking about doing more 5bet feign pushing preflop or semi-feign sticking postflop, then, at that point, understanding the numerical behind it is critical. Push play and I'll walk you through the equation and approach for sealing semi-feigns with poker math. All of this work rests upon already knowing the basic EV formula. So essentially what we stand to win multiplied by how often we ll win minus what we stand to lose multiplied by how often we ll lose. But there are times when we need a more complex version of this. Let s look at an example to get us started.
A Semi-Bluff Shove Example
In this hand it folds to the cutoff who opens, we semi-bluff 3bet to $10 with 8♥6♥, the cutoff 4bets to $23 and we decide to 5bet shove.
Like most plays in poker, we can prove this using some simple poker math, But you may notice that the basic EV equation from earlier does not account for ALL possible outcomes. Once we shove there are 3 things that can happen:
He calls and we lose
He calls and we win
He folds and we win
So at this point, the basic EV formula needs to be expanded to account for each outcome. The expanded formula would then look like this:
Where “F” stands for “times villain folds” and “C” stands for “times villain calls”. And if you only know one of them, you can always figure out the other since their sum is always 100%. E.g., if you know F is 20%, then you take 100% – 20%, and get 80% for C.
Now we can just start plugging numbers in. Since most of these numbers are related (F+C=100% and %W+%L=100%), it makes life even easier. Let’s review how to get each number quickly:
Let’s review how to get each number quickly:
%F/%C = These are estimations based upon how often you think villain will call your shove. If you think he was bluff 4betting a ton and thus wouldn’t be able to call your shove often…then F would be a very large percentage. Conversely, if you think villain were 4betting a strong range and would call your shove often, then F would be a small percentage and C would be quite large.
%W/%L = These are based upon equity, which we can calculate using a program like Equilab. The W% is your equity vs. the range villain would open, 4bet, & call your shove with
$Pot = the size of the pot BEFORE you shove
$W = what you would win the times you get called and win
$L = what you would lose the times you get called and villain wins
Now we just have to make some assumptions on his range and frequencies, plug in some numbers, and prove the validity of this shove. Let’s assume villain would call our shove with TT+/AK. In that case, our 8♥6♥ would have 27% equity…so %W is .27 and %L is .73
Let’s also assume that villain does bluff 4bet sometimes, so we assume he will 4bet/fold 25% of the time. This means F is 25% and C is 75%.
The Bluff Sizes
Now for the dollar amounts and we can solve it!
The pot before we shove is $34.50. If we shove and villain wins we lose $96. Because villain has the shortest stack we can only lose $83 plus the $13 to match his 4bet. Our $10 3bet no longer belongs to us, and thus we cannot lose it once we shove.
If we shove and villain calls we can win $117.5. Because we have the largest stack the shortcut is just current pot + villain’s stack. Now we have all of the necessary inputs!
We see that at this point our shove has a -$20.14 expected value. Given the parameters and assumptions we’ve used, this is a bad shove and we would do better by folding correctly. But since we are analyzing this hand away from the table, and have this extra time, let’s do some experimenting…
Assume for a moment that villain 4bet bluffs a LOT more often, and thus we can expect a fold from him 60% of the time. That changes F to 60% and C to 40%. Let’s also change his calling range from TT+/AK to TT+/AQ+. This increases our equity up to 30%, and thus changes both %W and %L. Now if we plug everything in we notice our EV jumps up to +$7.92.
All of a sudden our shove is looking pretty good!
Using The Bluffing Formula
With this equation, the cash won and lost will stay steady, yet changes in reaches and frequencies can modify the result a ton. Basically, the more miscreant folds and we get the pot by and large the better for us. The greater value we have when called the better since we'll get the all-in pot more regularly and lose on rare occasions. What's more, in the event that we can at any point increment both our value when called AND the times bad guy folds preflop… the endlessly better our semi-feign will be.
Knowing how and when to grow the fundamental EV recipe can significantly help you on and off the table. Presently continuously you will not have the option to plug-n-play with the recipe… yet with enough off-table practice things can get imbued and you will all the more accurately gauge the math at the tables. What's more, frankly, there are times when you could extend the recipe significantly further… yet knowing how to do this gives you a decent numerical major advantage over your rivals!
An Advanced Bluff Example
If everything you’ve just read made sense, the next step is to begin analyzing poker hands and comparing lines sign up. It’s not uncommon to find that multiple lines are profitable – so knowing how to compare them and choose appropriately is incredibly valuable.
Watch this extended video to see how to apply this kind of work to your off-table study. In this video, I compare the EV of semi-bluff shoving overcards and a gutshot to just calling a bet on the turn. The process is crucial for advancing your exploration between sessions.
Same as always, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to let me know…otherwise good luck and happy grinding!
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